Modest summer growth patterns continue through end of summer and into winter as consumers reamin price sensitive

Winter Park,—As the final weeks of the summer season wind down with results that will be similar to last summer, the focus is shifting to the upcoming winter season. Modest gains in daily rates and revenues are expected to deliver a solid finish for a summer that struggled with economic uncertainty and decidedly price-conscious consumers. In DestiMetrics* most recent monthly Market Briefing released by Inntopia, the latest data had some positive news while the booking patterns recorded over the summer are continuing into the winter.

 

“The last few months have demonstrated that consumers are price-picky—even pickier about spending than they were at the height of the post-pandemic inflation period in 2022 and 2023 when they were still pretty flush with cash,” reported Tom Foley, director of Business Intelligence for Inntopia. “But a lot of uncertainty has entered the market since that time and with the current lack of data about jobs and inflation due to the government shutdown, we are operating in the dark about economic performance—and that is contributing to the ongoing consumer price sensitivity.”

 

Actual occupancy in September was down a miniscule 0.1 percent in a year-over-year comparison while the Average Daily Rate (ADR) was up 2.6 percent. The boost in rates offset the scant occupancy decline to deliver a 2.5 percent gain in revenues for the month. 

The full summer is faring a bit better.  As of Sept. 30, occupancy is up 1.3 percent with June, August and October posting increases while May, July, and September are all down. ADR for the summer is up 1.8 percent with modest gains in all months but August which was flat. The growth, although modest, is delivering a 3.1 percent year-over-year gain in summer revenues.

 

Occupancy on-the-books for November through March is down a very scant 0.2 percent compared to last year at this time with gains currently appearing for both December and January. Daily rates for the winter are up 2.3 percent with December and January posting slight declines year-over-year while November, February, and March have edged up. The decline in occupancy is offset by increases in rate and lodging properties are currently showing a 2.1 percent increase in on-the-books revenue

 “Summer’s price sensitivity is definitely continuing into winter with the biggest occupancy gains appearing in the months that rate is down from last year,” observed Foley. “What we’re seeing is that winter is shaping up like the summer with modest occupancy gains based on slight tweaks to rates—and that is delivering moderate revenue gains. So, as usual, at this point in the pre-season, the uncontrollable wildcards of weather and economic conditions will have a considerable influenced on the coming season,” he acknowledged.

Occupancy booking pace during September for arrivals in September through February jumped 10.1 percent in comparison to last year at this time with every month except January recording gains in pacing. October arrivals are up 7.4 percent while February is posting a substantial 23 percent gain.

“The pattern of moderate performance growth throughout the summer is carrying into the winter season as economic uncertainty and the potential for a prolonged lack of federal economic data makes winter planning foggier,” Foley continued. “But the current booking pace this early in the season suggests an opportunity for lodging properties if they remain sensitive to their customers and nimble in their pricing strategies and demand shifts,” he concluded.

*DestiMetrics, part of the Business Intelligence platform for Stowe-based Inntopia, tracks lodging performance in resort destinations. Each month, the forward-looking reservation data is compiled and aggregated with individualized results for each region and distributed monthly to subscribers at participating resorts. Approximately 28,000 lodging units in 17 mountain destination communities across Colorado, Utah, California, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho contribute to the data pool, and represent an aggregated 55 percent of all available rental units in those regions. Results may vary significantly among/between resorts and participating properties.